My Crystal Ball ---The Future of Publishing
So one of the great things about not having any audience whatsoever for this blog is I can pretty much say what I want consequence free. Now if you have been reading this blog, you know I've come out hitting pretty hard in defense of Indie Authors. This week Hugh Howey was the guest on Sell More Books Show and had a long and very interesting conversation. So near the end of the show, they were bantering about with the Hachette/Amazon ongoing negotiations. And after having read on both sides, my opinion of this pretty much stands where it did a month and half ago when I wrote Amazon/ Hachette,/Indies Oh My! Though, to be fair, I was pretty sure this would all be over with by now, but what evs. It is not my intention to talk about that, but it did lead to a little side discussion between host Bryan Cohen and Hugh about whether or not one of the Big Five publishers would embrace an e-book strategy.
Hugh expressed he wished one would. But when the question came up I shouted out loud, "No!" And I madly respect Hugh and his work, but I think it's far more likely that it won't happen. You see I have this vision about what I think will happen. Amazon stated publicly a few years back when they decided to go into the imprint business, that their algorithms could tell when someone was about to become a break out author and I believe them. But if Hugh and Data can track sales across the internet with a computer program, there is a bored publisher/editor/agent sitting out there thing their job could be so much better if....and then they are going to go out and do it.
The agent-editor-book seller combo will start their own company and will rapidly bring on board some top name talent. Let us pretend it's me, for the sake of this argument. What would a publisher have that I can't get myself? Print books everywhere. And they will know I'm a sound investment because of the millions of my ebooks sold. So I keep my ebook revenue, they get my print rights, and we both make a ton of money. It will happen. The trick is going to be to sign the author at the right part, when they still believe a publisher has something to offer. And this publisher will sell a ton of books and perhaps displace one of the Big Five Publishers.
They will kick the Big Five so Hard, it won't be funny. Simultaneously something else will happen. Barnes and Noble will be come a non entity, much like Blockbuster Video today. With Barnes and Noble gone, the Walmarts and Targets of the world will dominate the in-store book distribution, but that won't be a big deal, because indie book stores will rise again. Not as big as they were back when I was a kid, but a good little niche where the smart survive. It's here where the money in print books will be made, one sale at a time. Print books aren't going to disappear any time soon. I have three kids, 12, 11 and 6 at the moment and every single one of them prefers to read a print book to an ebook. Many other kids feel the same way. What we need to do is nurture them for they will become print readers of the future. Not for every book mind you, but for the ones they love. The authors they respect, yeah a tome in hand will be worth two on the digital device.
Hugh expressed he wished one would. But when the question came up I shouted out loud, "No!" And I madly respect Hugh and his work, but I think it's far more likely that it won't happen. You see I have this vision about what I think will happen. Amazon stated publicly a few years back when they decided to go into the imprint business, that their algorithms could tell when someone was about to become a break out author and I believe them. But if Hugh and Data can track sales across the internet with a computer program, there is a bored publisher/editor/agent sitting out there thing their job could be so much better if....and then they are going to go out and do it.
The agent-editor-book seller combo will start their own company and will rapidly bring on board some top name talent. Let us pretend it's me, for the sake of this argument. What would a publisher have that I can't get myself? Print books everywhere. And they will know I'm a sound investment because of the millions of my ebooks sold. So I keep my ebook revenue, they get my print rights, and we both make a ton of money. It will happen. The trick is going to be to sign the author at the right part, when they still believe a publisher has something to offer. And this publisher will sell a ton of books and perhaps displace one of the Big Five Publishers.
They will kick the Big Five so Hard, it won't be funny. Simultaneously something else will happen. Barnes and Noble will be come a non entity, much like Blockbuster Video today. With Barnes and Noble gone, the Walmarts and Targets of the world will dominate the in-store book distribution, but that won't be a big deal, because indie book stores will rise again. Not as big as they were back when I was a kid, but a good little niche where the smart survive. It's here where the money in print books will be made, one sale at a time. Print books aren't going to disappear any time soon. I have three kids, 12, 11 and 6 at the moment and every single one of them prefers to read a print book to an ebook. Many other kids feel the same way. What we need to do is nurture them for they will become print readers of the future. Not for every book mind you, but for the ones they love. The authors they respect, yeah a tome in hand will be worth two on the digital device.
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